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Texas overtakes USC in BCS by percentage points
The most significant BCS number Monday sounded like a bad Hollywood sequel -- .0007. Excuse Trojans everywhere if they are shaken and stirred.
Sequel? Yeah, they've been through this before.
USC slipped to No. 2 in the latest BCS ratings Monday afternoon immediately conjuring images of 2003. That was the year the Trojans were a consensus No. 1 in both polls but were No. 3 in the final BCS ratings. USC was able to snag a share of the AP national championship in the Rose Bowl after being shut out of the BCS title game (the Sugar Bowl, LSU-Oklahoma).
Once again, USC is a consensus No. 1 in both polls. But it dropped to No. 2 behind Texas in the BCS by .0007 of a point. Next stop, out of the Rose Bowl, site of this year's championship game?
Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com said USC need not worry. For one thing, its margin over No. 3 Virginia Tech is a comfortable .0592.
"Virginia Tech is not threat to USC at all," he said, adding the disclaimer, "If all teams win by the expected margin."
With six undefeated teams left, the "expected margin" could be a moving target. Pollsters and computers have been known to react unpredictably. The six undefeateds lined up 1-6 in the second BCS ratings: Texas, USC, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Alabama and UCLA. Miami is the highest-ranked one-loss team at No. 7.
"It's a compliment, because it's a place we haven't been in a long time and it sets our standard even higher," Texas coach Mack Brown said of the No. 1 ranking. "We also understand that the percentage points and the rankings can change weekly. What we have to do is concentrate on winning. That's the only thing we have control over. Itıs only October, and what we want to do is to be one of the top two teams in December."
Virginia Tech has more of a chance of displacing Texas in the top two, however that's a long shot as well. Texas moved up to No. 1 largely on the strength of being rated No. 1 by all six BCS computer indexes. The Hokies are still ranked No. 3 in both human polls and no higher than third in any of the computers. At this point, there is little room mathematically for Virginia Tech to move up if the top three keep winning.
But stay tuned, weirder things have happened in the BCS.
The Hokies still have a possible three games left over currently-ranked teams -- Miami, Boston College and possibly Florida State in the ACC title game.
Based on the latest polls, Texas would not play another ranked team until, possibly the Big 12 title game. Big 12 North co-leader Colorado is unranked in the coaches and Harris polls but 24th in the BCS.
Beating ranked teams below you seems to be a moot point at this point in the season. Texas beat No. 10 Texas Tech on Saturday and picked up three overall points in the Harris poll and one in the coaches poll. Its biggest jump was in the computers where it went to No. 1 across the board.
"It's really a non-event," Palm said of Texas' sudden move to No. 1.
He expects USC to ascend back to No. 1 in the BCS possibly as soon as next week. The .0007 margin is the slimmest between No. 1 and No. 2 teams in history. And only one time has the BCS title game not included a team that was No. 1 or No. 2 with six weeks left in the season.
The last time the BCS No. 1 was overtaken in the ratings during the regular season was three years ago. Miami passed Ohio State. The two teams ended up playing in the Fiesta Bowl for the BCS title.
This week USC plays Washington State at home while Texas plays at Oklahoma State. It matters little in the BCS world which team is No. 1 anyway. It is who is No. 2 because No. 3 might as well be No. 40. It is out of the championship game.
USC was undone in 2003 because the polls were then averaged together, instead of calculated by percentage of votes. Back then there was also a schedule strength component and quality win component. Both of those were eliminated, in part, because of what happened to USC two years ago.
Source: AP
Sequel? Yeah, they've been through this before.
USC slipped to No. 2 in the latest BCS ratings Monday afternoon immediately conjuring images of 2003. That was the year the Trojans were a consensus No. 1 in both polls but were No. 3 in the final BCS ratings. USC was able to snag a share of the AP national championship in the Rose Bowl after being shut out of the BCS title game (the Sugar Bowl, LSU-Oklahoma).
Once again, USC is a consensus No. 1 in both polls. But it dropped to No. 2 behind Texas in the BCS by .0007 of a point. Next stop, out of the Rose Bowl, site of this year's championship game?
Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com said USC need not worry. For one thing, its margin over No. 3 Virginia Tech is a comfortable .0592.
"Virginia Tech is not threat to USC at all," he said, adding the disclaimer, "If all teams win by the expected margin."
With six undefeated teams left, the "expected margin" could be a moving target. Pollsters and computers have been known to react unpredictably. The six undefeateds lined up 1-6 in the second BCS ratings: Texas, USC, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Alabama and UCLA. Miami is the highest-ranked one-loss team at No. 7.
"It's a compliment, because it's a place we haven't been in a long time and it sets our standard even higher," Texas coach Mack Brown said of the No. 1 ranking. "We also understand that the percentage points and the rankings can change weekly. What we have to do is concentrate on winning. That's the only thing we have control over. Itıs only October, and what we want to do is to be one of the top two teams in December."
Virginia Tech has more of a chance of displacing Texas in the top two, however that's a long shot as well. Texas moved up to No. 1 largely on the strength of being rated No. 1 by all six BCS computer indexes. The Hokies are still ranked No. 3 in both human polls and no higher than third in any of the computers. At this point, there is little room mathematically for Virginia Tech to move up if the top three keep winning.
But stay tuned, weirder things have happened in the BCS.
The Hokies still have a possible three games left over currently-ranked teams -- Miami, Boston College and possibly Florida State in the ACC title game.
Based on the latest polls, Texas would not play another ranked team until, possibly the Big 12 title game. Big 12 North co-leader Colorado is unranked in the coaches and Harris polls but 24th in the BCS.
Beating ranked teams below you seems to be a moot point at this point in the season. Texas beat No. 10 Texas Tech on Saturday and picked up three overall points in the Harris poll and one in the coaches poll. Its biggest jump was in the computers where it went to No. 1 across the board.
"It's really a non-event," Palm said of Texas' sudden move to No. 1.
He expects USC to ascend back to No. 1 in the BCS possibly as soon as next week. The .0007 margin is the slimmest between No. 1 and No. 2 teams in history. And only one time has the BCS title game not included a team that was No. 1 or No. 2 with six weeks left in the season.
The last time the BCS No. 1 was overtaken in the ratings during the regular season was three years ago. Miami passed Ohio State. The two teams ended up playing in the Fiesta Bowl for the BCS title.
This week USC plays Washington State at home while Texas plays at Oklahoma State. It matters little in the BCS world which team is No. 1 anyway. It is who is No. 2 because No. 3 might as well be No. 40. It is out of the championship game.
USC was undone in 2003 because the polls were then averaged together, instead of calculated by percentage of votes. Back then there was also a schedule strength component and quality win component. Both of those were eliminated, in part, because of what happened to USC two years ago.
Source: AP
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